CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001)

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

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Half-angular width (deg):

Notes: :Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Dec 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. In addition to a flurry of M-class
flares, Region 3936 (N13W41, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1.1/1N
flare at 29/0718 UTC, which was the largest flare of the period. Two
CMEs were associated with this event. The first was seen in NASA
coronagraph imagery around 29/0848 UTC and appeared to be a sympathetic
event that originated in the vicinity of Region 3933 (S08W75,
Eai/beta-gamma). The second was seen in NASA coronagraph imagery around
29/0912 UTC as a northwesterly front possibly driven from the
aforementioned X1.1 event. Modeling of both of these CMEs suggests that
they will miss south and ahead of Earth, respectively. Other notable
flares from AR3936 included an M4.2 flare at 29/0759 UTC and an M7.2 at
29/1509 UTC.

Region 3939 (S17E20, Dso/beta) produced numerous M-class flares as well.
A filament eruption that was associated with an M2.0 flare at 29/0430
UTC from AR3939 resulted in an asymmetric, partial-halo CME first seen
in NASA coronagraph imagery at approximately 29/0624 UTC. Analysis and
modeling of this CME indicated an Earth-directed event with an arrival
at Earth by mid UTC day on 31 Dec. Additionally, AR 3939 produced an
M3.3 flare at 29/1708 UTC that appeared to have resulted in yet another
partial-halo CME, although, more faint CME first seen in NASA
coronagraph imagery around 29/1800 UTC. Analysis and modeling of this
event is ongoing as of the time of this writing.
 
.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for
an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 01 Jan as the conglomeration of
regions approaches the western limb.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly elevated above
background, but well below the S1 threshold. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux reached moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels through 31 Dec. A slight chance for an S1 (Minor)
solar radiation storm event will persist through 01 Jan given the
current total disk potential.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly disturbed, but overall nominal.
Total field reached peaks of 8-9 nT, but were otherwise 3-5 nT. The Bz
component underwent a few southward deflections down to -5 nT, but was
predominantly northward or near neutral. Solar wind speeds gradually
increased to a peak of ~400 km/s before returning to 360-370 km/s. Phi
was predominantly negative with a few excursions into a positive solar
sector.

.Forecast...
Weak enhancements are possible through 30 Dec. Greater enhancements to
the solar wind environment due to CME arrival are likely by mid UTC day
on 31 Dec. This disturbance is expected to continue over the course of
31 Dec before beginning to subside by late 01 Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 30 Dec. Isolated periods
of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming are likely by mid UTC day on 31 Dec
due to CME effects from the aforementioned asymmetric, partial-halo
event of 29 Dec. While confidence is moderate to high in a geomagnetic
storming outcome exact storm strength and timing is lower due to the
nature of the filament eruption. Lingering G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storming is likely to continue into 01 Jan was CME effects slowly wane.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Dec 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 30-Jan 01 2025 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 30-Jan 01 2025

             Dec 30       Dec 31       Jan 01
00-03UT       1.33         1.67         5.00 (G1)
03-06UT       1.33         5.00 (G1)    4.00     
06-09UT       1.33         6.00 (G2)    3.33     
09-12UT       1.33         6.67 (G3)    3.67     
12-15UT       1.00         5.33 (G1)    2.67     
15-18UT       1.33         4.33         2.33     
18-21UT       1.67         4.00         2.00     
21-00UT       2.67         4.67 (G1)    3.00     

Rationale: No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are
forecast on 30 Dec. G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely
on 31 Dec followed by G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely on 01 Jan,
all due to CME activity from significant X-ray activity on 29 Dec.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2025

              Dec 30  Dec 31  Jan 01
S1 or greater   20%     20%     15%

Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm event
will persist through 01 Jan given the current total disk potential.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 29 2024 0718 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2025

              Dec 30        Dec 31        Jan 01
R1-R2           80%           80%           75%
R3 or greater   30%           30%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 01 Jan as the
conglomeration of regions approaches the western limb and new,
developing regions rotate onto the eastern limb.

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